Before the Manchester derby, Erik ten Hag declared, “All eyes will be on this game globally,” but the excitement was tempered with apprehension about what might be in store for his team.
With all those eyeballs on the game, Ten Hag’s Manchester United was melted by Manchester City’s second-half brilliance. After netting twice, Erling Haaland set up Phil Foden to finish off a sophisticated victory.
Opta uses their renowned supercomputer to undertake 10,000 simulations of the remaining matchups for the season. In order to determine what is most likely to occur over the next several months, a hierarchical Elo-based grading system and a combination of betting odds are used to rank each club.
Following their loss in the derby on Sunday, here are some predictions for United’s performance in the remaining Premier League games.
Where Man United will finish in the 2023–2024 Premier League season is predicted by a supercomputer
Opta’s combinations indicate that United might end up as low as seventh at the conclusion of the season, which is where they currently stand after ten games of the season. This is based on their current form.
The competition’s 13-time winners have never finished lower than seventh in the history of the Premier League; their lowest point came in 2013–14, the only season David Moyes led as Sir Alex Ferguson’s replacement.
The last time United finished lower than seventh was under Ferguson’s leadership. After defeating the defending champions, Arsenal, 4-1, on the first weekend of the 1989–1990 season, the Red Devils saw little success in the league and finished as low as 13th. Ferguson once called the 5-1 thrashing of his team at Maine Road in the opening Manchester derby of the season “the most embarrassing loss of my career.” On the weekend, Ten Hag managed to escape with a three-goal defeat.
The FA Cup victory that year was the only bright spot in United’s season. In the main event at Wembley, Crystal Palace led twice before Mark Hughes forced a replay in extra time. Maybe five days later, Lee Martin’s lone goal kept Ferguson out of the firing line.
Even though Ten Hag won the EFL Cup in his first season, a dismal eighth place result outside of the European spots would guarantee Ten Hag’s departure from Old Trafford, even in the event that another domestic cup is awarded.
Even though it’s a historically low result, eighth place feels somewhat generous considering the lackluster performance United put up against City on Sunday in the second half. United was lucky to just let up three goals in the end, as City finished with the second-highest xG total of any Premier League club this year.
This season, United has only led for 98 minutes in the top tier, and once City seized the lead in the first half, they hardly seemed to be adding to that total. Three of the current bottom four teams, Sheffield United, Luton, and Bournemouth, are the only ones to have led for less minutes.
This weekend’s tormentors of United, City, are heavy favorites to accomplish something no other team in the annals of England’s top flight has ever accomplished: four straight league titles.
Even though Pep Guardiola’s team is in the strange position of third place, Tottenham Hotspur is only two points ahead of them at the top of the division. With 26 points from a possible 30, Ange Postecoglou’s pace-setters have broken records, but by the time May arrives, they are still predicted to fall to fourth place.
After ten games, Arsenal and City are tied on 24 points, but neither team is considered the defending champions’ main rival. Liverpool wins that distinction.
However, Manchester United already considers any discussion of winning the title to be unrealistic. The Opta supercomputer predicts that United’s chances of winning the Premier League this season are exactly 0.0%. They would definitely be content with a ranking in the top seven at this time.
